US Stock Market Sector Analysis – Monday, October 21, 2024 BEARISH

Today’s session was driven by a tech-led bounce as NVIDIA (NVDA) jumped 4.1% to $143.49, pushing the Chip Supply Chain and Mag 7 names higher while broader participation lagged — only 2 sectors finished up versus 17 down. The US stock market’s leadership concentrated in AI-related hardware and media, with Apple (AAPL) at $234.72 up 0.6% and Microsoft (MSFT) at $413.04 trading flat, while Tesla (TSLA) at $218.85 slipped 0.8% amid an active alert. The S&P 500 showed narrow internals: 18 sectors remain above their 50-day moving averages and the Mag 7 (AI Spenders) group rose 0.6% on the day, underscoring concentrated strength in large-cap tech.

Market Condition Dashboard

US 10-Year Treasury Yield

Wait & Watch

4.19%

rising

Impact

Confidence

Crude Oil (WTI)

Neutral

$70.56

+1.9% 1D

Impact

Confidence

VIX (Fear Index)

Normal Range

18.4

+1.9% 1D

Impact

Confidence

Tracked Stocks Breadth (50DMA)

Late-Cycle Caution

79%

54 of 68 above 50DMA · -13.2pp 5D

Impact

Confidence

Put/Call Ratio (5D)

Caution

0.75

Call-Heavy · stable

Impact

Confidence

Signal analysis only — not investment advice

Sector Performance (Base=100)

AI and Technology Sector Analysis

AI spending remained the dominant investment theme as NVIDIA (NVDA) $143.49 outperformed and kept the chip supply chain in focus, lifting Marvell (MRVL) $81.46 and AMD (AMD) $157.90 on continued demand for inference accelerators. Infrastructure beneficiaries such as Super Micro (SMCI) $47.80 also advanced, reflecting capacity additions in data centers and enterprise stacks. Enterprise software names held steady, indicating that software refresh cycles and cloud services are supporting hardware cycles but with performance concentrated in a few Magnificent 7 leaders.

US Stock Sector Overview

Sector	1D	5D	20D	vs 50MA
Mag 7 (AI Spenders)	+0.6%	+1.2%	+1.1%	ABOVE
Chip Supply Chain	+0.4%	+1.9%	+5.2%	ABOVE
Infrastructure	-0.7%	+1.0%	+7.9%	ABOVE
Enterprise Software	-0.2%	-0.4%	+4.5%	ABOVE
Finance	-1.5%	-0.3%	+5.0%	ABOVE
Healthcare	-0.5%	+1.0%	-1.3%	BELOW
Retail	-0.5%	-1.0%	-0.7%	BELOW
IT Services	-0.2%	+0.7%	+8.0%	ABOVE
Airlines	-0.7%	+10.0%	+26.8%	ABOVE
Hospitality & Travel	+0.0%	+1.5%	+5.8%	ABOVE
Food & Restaurant	-0.5%	+1.0%	+3.5%	ABOVE
Logistics	-2.7%	-0.4%	+1.0%	BELOW
Industrial	-0.4%	+1.5%	+4.7%	ABOVE
Cybersecurity	-0.1%	-0.1%	+8.5%	ABOVE
Chip Equipment	-0.8%	-3.4%	-8.8%	BELOW
Data Center REITs	-0.9%	+1.3%	+0.5%	ABOVE
Utilities	-0.6%	+2.0%	+2.1%	ABOVE
Energy	+0.1%	+1.0%	+2.5%	ABOVE
Defense & Aerospace	+0.1%	+1.6%	+4.2%	ABOVE
Telecom	-0.6%	+1.1%	+3.9%	ABOVE
Media & Entertainment	+0.2%	+6.0%	+5.0%	ABOVE
Biotech	-1.0%	-1.0%	-0.7%	BELOW
Materials	-0.4%	+1.6%	+6.8%	ABOVE
Analog & Embedded Chips	-2.1%	-1.1%	-3.7%	BELOW

Sector Strength

Mag 7 (AI Spenders) +0.6% 20d: +1.1%

NVIDIA (NVDA) +4.1% (20d: +18.9%), Apple (AAPL) +0.6% (20d: +4.0%), Alphabet (GOOG) +0.5% (20d: +1.3%)

Chip Supply Chain +0.4% 20d: +5.2%

Marvell (MRVL) +2.5% (20d: +15.0%), AMD +1.2% (20d: -0.3%), TSMC (TSM) +0.6% (20d: +11.0%)

Sector Warnings

Logistics -2.7% 20d: +1.0%

UPS -3.4% (20d: +1.4%), FedEx (FDX) -2.0% (20d: +0.6%) [<50MA]

Analog & Embedded Chips -2.1% 20d: -3.7%

Microchip Technology (MCHP) -2.8% (20d: -3.0%) [<50MA], Texas Instruments (TXN) -1.4% (20d: -4.5%) [<50MA]

Finance -1.5% 20d: +5.0%

Goldman Sachs (GS) -2.0% (20d: +4.0%), JPMorgan (JPM) -1.1% (20d: +6.0%)

Biotech -1.0% 20d: -0.7%

Amgen (AMGN) -1.5% (20d: -4.3%) [<50MA], Gilead (GILD) -0.5% (20d: +3.0%)

Data Center REITs -0.9% 20d: +0.5%

Equinix (EQIX) -1.7% (20d: -0.9%), Digital Realty (DLR) -0.1% (20d: +1.9%)

Sector Deep Dive

Chip Supply Chain showed resilience with the sector up 0.4% today and a strong 50-day context (+20.8% ABOVE). NVIDIA (NVDA) led gains, rising 4.1% to $143.49 and sitting +31.8% over the 50-day window, while Marvell (MRVL) advanced 2.5% to $81.46 and AMD (AMD) was higher by 1.2% to $157.90. The 50-day trend confirms the group’s recovery from earlier weakness; investors should watch chip equipment weakness juxtaposed against system and IP strength for rotation signals.

Infrastructure traded mixed but remains constructive with a 50-day lift of +23.6% ABOVE the moving average despite Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) falling 3.5% to $19.15. Super Micro (SMCI) bucked the downshifts, climbing 1.1% to $47.80, highlighting bifurcation between suppliers to data centers and legacy enterprise hardware. Over the 50-day window the sector’s advance suggests capex-led demand remains intact, though stock-level dispersion argues for selective exposure to names tied to hyperscaler spending.

Logistics underperformed sharply, reflecting recent execution headlines and margin pressure: UPS (UPS) slid 3.4% to $117.74 and FedEx (FDX) dropped 2.0% to $208.93, leaving the Logistics sector down 2.7% on the day and only +1.6% over 50 days (BELOW the 50-day in a muted uptrend). The divergence versus industrial peers and transportation-sensitive sectors signals caution; cyclical exposure should be sized for potential volatility as volumes and labor costs remain uncertain.

Finance lagged with Goldman Sachs (GS) down 2.0% to $500.10 even as the broader sector sits +8.0% over the 50-day window (ABOVE). The pullback inside a longer 50-day uptrend points to profit-taking after recent strength; traders should watch rate-sensitive names and capital markets cadence for the next directional clues, while income-oriented allocations can favor resilient banks with stable net interest margin outlooks.

Market Breadth Analysis

US stock market breadth analysis shows 18 of 24 sectors trading above their 50-day moving average, while 6 are below. The majority of sectors holding above the 50-day MA indicates healthy medium-term momentum. With 19 sectors positive over 20 days, buying pressure remains broad-based.

Interactive Charts

S&P 500 & NASDAQ 100

50-Day Sector Performance

1-Day vs 5-Day Sector Change

Active Alerts

MEDIUM TSLA down -16.4% from 20-day high

Stock-Level Detail

Mag 7 (AI Spenders) Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
NVDA	$143.49	+4.1%	+9.2%	+18.9%	+31.8%	ABOVE	0
AAPL	$234.72	+0.6%	+1.1%	+4.0%	+8.7%	ABOVE	0
GOOG	$164.75	+0.5%	-0.7%	+1.3%	+1.3%	ABOVE	0
MSFT	$413.04	+0.1%	+0.0%	-2.4%	+3.1%	BELOW	0
AMZN	$189.07	+0.0%	+0.7%	-2.5%	+13.4%	ABOVE	0
META	$571.87	-0.2%	-1.9%	+2.1%	+11.6%	ABOVE	2
TSLA	$218.85	-0.8%	-0.3%	-13.9%	+10.8%	BELOW	3

Chip Supply Chain Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
MRVL	$81.46	+2.5%	+3.0%	+15.0%	+35.3%	ABOVE	0
AMD	$157.90	+1.2%	+0.8%	-0.3%	+15.4%	ABOVE	0
TSM	$197.61	+0.6%	+7.9%	+11.0%	+20.9%	ABOVE	0
INTC	$22.84	+0.3%	+0.8%	+0.1%	+18.0%	ABOVE	0
AVGO	$177.25	+0.1%	+2.3%	+2.9%	+21.5%	ABOVE	0
ARM	$152.35	-0.4%	+1.1%	+6.3%	+30.1%	ABOVE	2
QCOM	$162.80	-1.1%	-2.9%	+1.2%	+4.3%	ABOVE	5

Infrastructure Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
SMCI	$47.80	+1.1%	+0.1%	+3.1%	-11.6%	BELOW	0
VRT	$111.87	-0.1%	+4.3%	+15.1%	+53.7%	ABOVE	2
CSCO	$54.37	-0.3%	+4.6%	+8.6%	+27.1%	ABOVE	1
DELL	$122.06	-0.6%	-0.1%	+7.1%	+31.9%	ABOVE	2
HPE	$19.15	-3.5%	-3.7%	+5.8%	+17.0%	ABOVE	2

Enterprise Software Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
ADBE	$497.71	+0.6%	-2.0%	-5.0%	-6.3%	BELOW	0
NOW	$183.67	-0.4%	-1.0%	-0.6%	+13.9%	ABOVE	1
CRM	$287.61	-0.6%	+1.0%	+7.7%	+16.1%	ABOVE	1
PLTR	$42.70	-0.6%	+0.6%	+15.7%	+45.3%	ABOVE	1

Finance Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
JPM	$215.32	-1.1%	+0.3%	+6.0%	+8.8%	ABOVE	1
GS	$500.10	-2.0%	-0.9%	+4.0%	+7.3%	ABOVE	3

Healthcare Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
UNH	$548.19	+0.3%	+2.7%	-0.6%	+1.5%	BELOW	0
LLY	$894.90	-1.3%	-0.8%	-2.0%	+2.6%	BELOW	1

Retail Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
COST	$878.52	-0.3%	-0.9%	-1.6%	+2.7%	BELOW	1
WMT	$79.55	-0.6%	-1.0%	+0.2%	+18.0%	ABOVE	1

IT Services Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
IBM	$221.25	-0.2%	-0.5%	+4.9%	+22.3%	ABOVE	3
ACN	$363.25	-0.2%	+2.0%	+11.2%	+20.3%	ABOVE	1

Airlines Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
UAL	$74.00	-0.2%	+15.5%	+38.0%	+83.1%	ABOVE	1
DAL	$54.02	-1.3%	+4.5%	+15.6%	+41.5%	ABOVE	1

Hospitality & Travel Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
BKNG	$172.15	+0.3%	+1.3%	+4.5%	+27.2%	ABOVE	0
MAR	$260.80	-0.2%	+1.7%	+7.1%	+23.8%	ABOVE	1

Food & Restaurant Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
SBUX	$92.24	-0.4%	+1.5%	+2.1%	+26.0%	ABOVE	1
MCD	$302.12	-0.5%	+0.5%	+4.9%	+17.5%	ABOVE	1

Logistics Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
FDX	$208.93	-2.0%	+1.1%	+0.6%	-3.2%	BELOW	1
UPS	$117.74	-3.4%	-1.8%	+1.4%	+6.5%	ABOVE	1

Industrial Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
HON	$211.01	-0.2%	+1.9%	+7.9%	+13.2%	ABOVE	1
CAT	$383.04	-0.5%	+1.0%	+1.5%	+16.6%	ABOVE	2

Cybersecurity Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
PANW	$189.21	+1.0%	+1.1%	+10.2%	+14.3%	ABOVE	0
CRWD	$77.39	-0.2%	+2.4%	+7.3%	+29.3%	ABOVE	2
ZS	$187.96	-1.1%	-3.7%	+7.9%	+8.9%	ABOVE	1

Chip Equipment Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
LRCX	$71.82	+0.0%	-4.6%	-7.9%	-9.9%	BELOW	0
AMAT	$181.75	-1.0%	-3.4%	-6.3%	-4.3%	BELOW	1
ASML	$703.24	-1.3%	-2.2%	-12.3%	-16.3%	BELOW	1

Data Center REITs Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
DLR	$157.09	-0.1%	+2.5%	+1.9%	+11.9%	ABOVE	1
EQIX	$847.32	-1.7%	+0.2%	-0.9%	+8.0%	ABOVE	1

Utilities Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
NEE	$79.81	-0.4%	+1.5%	-0.3%	+9.0%	ABOVE	1
SO	$87.57	-0.5%	+2.2%	+3.3%	+7.2%	ABOVE	1
DUK	$112.67	-0.7%	+2.4%	+3.4%	+6.7%	ABOVE	1

Energy Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
CVX	$140.07	+0.1%	+2.1%	+2.3%	+5.2%	ABOVE	0
XOM	$113.35	+0.1%	-0.2%	+2.6%	+1.7%	ABOVE	0

Defense & Aerospace Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
LMT	$586.34	+0.5%	+1.6%	+6.2%	+11.0%	ABOVE	0
RTX	$122.03	-0.0%	+0.7%	+4.9%	+8.6%	ABOVE	1
GD	$297.95	-0.1%	+2.6%	+1.6%	+6.3%	ABOVE	1

Telecom Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
TMUS	$216.34	-0.2%	+2.6%	+10.6%	+14.6%	ABOVE	1
VZ	$38.93	-0.7%	-0.1%	-0.6%	+9.5%	ABOVE	1
T	$20.01	-0.9%	+0.7%	+1.6%	+12.9%	ABOVE	1

Media & Entertainment Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
NFLX	$77.21	+1.1%	+9.4%	+6.9%	+21.9%	ABOVE	0
DIS	$94.42	-0.7%	+2.5%	+3.1%	+12.4%	ABOVE	1

Biotech Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
GILD	$82.23	-0.5%	+0.5%	+3.0%	+19.3%	ABOVE	2
AMGN	$299.96	-1.5%	-2.6%	-4.3%	-0.3%	BELOW	1

Materials Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
APD	$317.01	-0.2%	+2.6%	+12.8%	+21.8%	ABOVE	1
LIN	$472.41	-0.6%	+0.6%	+0.8%	+8.5%	ABOVE	1

Analog & Embedded Chips Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
TXN	$186.21	-1.4%	-2.0%	-4.5%	+1.9%	BELOW	1
MCHP	$71.60	-2.8%	-0.1%	-3.0%	-1.1%	BELOW	1

Key Stock Movers

Today's biggest movers by absolute percentage change: NVIDIA (NVDA) (Mag 7 (AI Spenders)) rose 4.1% to $143.49. Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) (Infrastructure) fell 3.5% to $19.15. UPS (Logistics) fell 3.4% to $117.74. Microchip Technology (MCHP) (Analog & Embedded Chips) fell 2.8% to $71.60. Marvell (MRVL) (Chip Supply Chain) rose 2.5% to $81.46. These individual stock movements were key drivers of their respective sector performance.

Risk and Opportunity Assessment

There are 1 medium-severity risk signals to monitor. While not requiring immediate action, keep an eye on the flagged sectors for further deterioration.

US Stock Market Outlook

Looking ahead, positioning should balance conviction in AI hardware and selective infrastructure names against breadth that remains narrow — 18 sectors above their 50-day moving averages while 6 sit below. Active alerts include one medium flag on TSLA (down 16.4% from its 20-day high), highlighting idiosyncratic risk in high-volatility names even as the Mag 7 retain leadership. With 50-day trends still positive for most core sectors, favor tactical overweight to chip supply chain and data-center exposed infrastructure, underweight stretched logistics and chip equipment until momentum confirms.

← 2024-10-18

Calendar

2024-10-22 →