US Stock Market Sector Analysis – Thursday, August 21, 2025 BEARISH

Fed-watch headlines and company-specific shocks set the tone for the US stock market today, as investors parsed speeches ahead of Chair Powell while Walmart (WMT) plunged 4.5% after earnings- and guidance-driven selling, dragging the Retail group down 3.5%. The magnitude of dispersion showed in sector action: Energy and Infrastructure finished modestly positive while 17 sectors closed lower, and only 9 sectors remain above their 50-day moving averages. The Magnificent 7 were mixed, with Apple (AAPL) -0.5% and Meta (META) -1.2% underperforming while NVIDIA (NVDA) held near session lows at $174.75 (-0.2%) after another choppy day for AI names. Market breadth reflected the split, with pockets of strength in Utilities and Telecom contrasting with persistent weakness across Enterprise Software and IT Services.

Market Condition Dashboard

US 10-Year Treasury Yield

Wait & Watch

4.33%

stable

Impact

Confidence

Crude Oil (WTI)

Neutral

$63.52

+0.5% 1D

Impact

Confidence

VIX (Fear Index)

Normal Range

16.6

+5.8% 1D

Impact

Confidence

200-Day Moving Average

Bullish Trend Intact

0/3 below

SPY above (+7.7%), QQQ above (+9.3%), DIA above (+4.7%)

Impact

Confidence

Tracked Stocks Breadth (50DMA)

Healthy Uptrend

53%

36 of 68 above 50DMA · -7.4pp 5D

Impact

Confidence

Put/Call Ratio (5D)

Caution

0.70

Call-Heavy · rising

Impact

Confidence

Signal analysis only — not investment advice

Sector Performance (Base=100)

AI and Technology Sector Analysis

The AI investment thesis remains intact but tempered: Alphabet (GOOG) $200.05 and NVIDIA (NVDA) $174.75 continue to trade above their 50-day averages, reinforcing leadership in models and datacenter demand, while Microsoft (MSFT) $501.07 shows resilience as AI monetization ramps. Pressure in the Chip Supply Chain and Infrastructure pockets keeps upside uneven—ARM Holdings (ARM) $133.28 is positive on the day but the broader chip equipment groups remain below their 50-day averages—while Enterprise Software weakness suggests slower near-term spending by corporate IT buyers. For investors, the theme favors selective exposure to Mag 7 names trading above 50-day trends and high-conviction chip/infra suppliers that can demonstrate durable product cycles and enterprise adoption.

US Stock Sector Overview

Sector	1D	5D	20D	vs 50MA
Mag 7 (AI Spenders)	-0.5%	-3.4%	+1.2%	ABOVE
Chip Supply Chain	-0.2%	-5.0%	-3.0%	BELOW
Infrastructure	+0.3%	-3.0%	-6.0%	BELOW
Enterprise Software	-0.4%	-2.4%	-6.1%	BELOW
Finance	-0.5%	-0.8%	-2.1%	ABOVE
Healthcare	+0.9%	+0.5%	-2.3%	BELOW
Retail	-3.5%	-1.1%	+2.3%	BELOW
IT Services	-0.9%	+1.3%	-8.7%	BELOW
Airlines	-2.4%	-3.8%	+6.2%	ABOVE
Hospitality & Travel	+0.5%	+1.9%	-2.2%	BELOW
Food & Restaurant	-0.5%	-0.4%	-0.3%	BELOW
Logistics	-0.9%	-0.8%	-11.3%	BELOW
Industrial	-0.2%	+1.4%	-3.1%	BELOW
Cybersecurity	-1.0%	-0.5%	-9.0%	BELOW
Chip Equipment	-1.0%	-1.0%	-2.8%	BELOW
Data Center REITs	-0.7%	-1.2%	-5.5%	BELOW
Utilities	-0.2%	+1.2%	+3.4%	ABOVE
Energy	+1.1%	+1.5%	+0.7%	ABOVE
Defense & Aerospace	-0.1%	+1.5%	+2.4%	ABOVE
Telecom	+0.1%	+1.7%	+5.2%	ABOVE
Media & Entertainment	-0.7%	-1.0%	-1.1%	BELOW
Biotech	-1.2%	-1.1%	-1.8%	ABOVE
Materials	+0.0%	+0.6%	-0.1%	ABOVE
Analog & Embedded Chips	-0.5%	+1.9%	+2.4%	BELOW

Sector Strength

Energy +1.1% 20d: +0.7%

Chevron (CVX) +1.5% (20d: +1.6%), Exxon Mobil (XOM) +0.6% (20d: -0.1%)

Healthcare +0.9% 20d: -2.3%

UnitedHealth (UNH) +1.2% (20d: +7.9%), Eli Lilly (LLY) +0.6% (20d: -12.5%) [<50MA]

Hospitality & Travel +0.5% 20d: -2.2%

Booking (BKNG) +1.3% (20d: +1.4%), Marriott (MAR) -0.2% (20d: -5.8%) [<50MA]

Infrastructure +0.3% 20d: -6.0%

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) +3.7% (20d: +5.3%), Cisco (CSCO) -0.1% (20d: -2.4%) [<50MA], Dell (DELL) -0.5% (20d: -2.6%)

Sector Warnings

Retail -3.5% 20d: +2.3%

Walmart (WMT) -4.5% (20d: +0.7%), Costco (COST) -2.5% (20d: +3.8%) [<50MA]

Airlines -2.4% 20d: +6.2%

United (UAL) -2.7% (20d: +6.7%), Delta (DAL) -2.0% (20d: +5.8%)

Biotech -1.2% 20d: -1.8%

Gilead (GILD) -2.2% (20d: -0.1%), Amgen (AMGN) -0.2% (20d: -3.5%)

Cybersecurity -1.0% 20d: -9.0%

Zscaler (ZS) -1.3% (20d: -5.5%) [<50MA], CrowdStrike (CRWD) -1.2% (20d: -11.5%) [<50MA], Palo Alto Networks (PANW) -0.6% (20d: -9.8%) [<50MA]

Chip Equipment -1.0% 20d: -2.8%

ASML -1.9% (20d: +3.7%) [<50MA], Lam Research (LRCX) -0.7% (20d: +1.5%), Applied Materials (AMAT) -0.4% (20d: -13.7%) [<50MA]

Sector Deep Dive

Retail's leadership reversal centered on Walmart (WMT) $97.37, which fell 4.5% and catalyzed a Retail sector decline of 3.5% for the day; Costco (COST) $965.59 also weakened -2.5%, leaving Retail effectively flat versus its 50-day moving average and signaling a loss of momentum across the 50-day window. The 50-day context shows Retail at -0.0% vs its 50MA, and today's weakness highlights margin and traffic concerns that could pressure sector earnings for the next two reporting cycles. Tactical exposure should be reduced until Retail reclaims a clear 50-day uptrend or until comp trends stabilize.

Airlines underperformed as United (UAL) $97.19 dropped 2.7% and Delta (DAL) $57.21 slipped 2.0%, dragging the Airlines average down 2.4% despite the group's 50-day strength of +20.8% above the moving average. The 50-day context confirms the group remains elevated, suggesting investors priced in durable demand recovery; however, the recent pullback reflects idiosyncratic weakness at UAL and sensitivity to near-term travel data and margin noise. For investors, selective long exposure to airlines that remain above their 50-day trend is constructive, but position sizes should be mindful of increased volatility around corporate cadence.

Infrastructure showed mixed intraday action with Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) $21.37 leading gainers at +3.7%, helping a modest Infrastructure advance of +0.3% on the day even as the overall group sits below its 50-day average (+10.7% vs50MA but noted as BELOW in the 50-day status). The 50-day window indicates a recent pullback inside what had been an uptrend, so HPE's outperformance may reflect stock-specific catalysts rather than broad sector health. Investors looking to play Infrastructure should favor names that can demonstrate secular product cycles and contract backlog visibility that support a re-acceleration back above the 50-day level.

Chip Supply Chain remains bifurcated: ARM Holdings (ARM) $133.28 gained 1.6% while the overall Chip Supply Chain posted -0.2% and sits +9.4% over 50 days but is listed BELOW its 50MA in today's breadth table, underscoring rotation within components. The 50-day trend shows some names like NVIDIA still well above their 50-day, but equipment and selected suppliers are lagging, keeping the group vulnerable to sentiment on capex timing. Active positions should focus on supply-chain names with visible design wins and long lead-time bookings that support recovery of the 50-day trend.

IT Services and Logistics warrant caution given active high alerts: IT Services is down -17.2% over the 50-day window and Logistics is down -11.3% over 20 days, with sector averages for the day negative and clear 50-day breakdowns. These deteriorating 50-day trends point to demand softness and margin pressure; neither sector shows a ready floor in the 50-day context, arguing for defensive positioning until signs of stabilization emerge. Risk managers should monitor client spending indicators and backlog metrics before adding exposure.

Market Breadth Analysis

US stock market breadth analysis shows 9 of 24 sectors trading above their 50-day moving average, while 15 are below. With the majority of sectors below the 50-day MA, medium-term momentum is deteriorating. The 20-day breadth shows 16 sectors in negative territory, pointing to widespread selling pressure.

Interactive Charts

S&P 500 & NASDAQ 100

50-Day Sector Performance

1-Day vs 5-Day Sector Change

Active Alerts

HIGH Logistics down -11.3% over 20 days

HIGH IT Services down -17.2% over 50 days

HIGH 6 sectors declining >5% over 20 days: Infrastructure, Enterprise Software, IT Services, Logistics, Cybersecurity, Data Center REITs

Stock-Level Detail

Mag 7 (AI Spenders) Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
GOOG	$200.05	+0.2%	-2.1%	+3.4%	+12.2%	ABOVE	0
MSFT	$501.07	-0.1%	-2.9%	-1.7%	+6.9%	ABOVE	5
NVDA	$174.75	-0.2%	-3.0%	+0.9%	+22.5%	ABOVE	3
AAPL	$224.27	-0.5%	-2.9%	+5.3%	+13.3%	ABOVE	6
AMZN	$221.95	-0.8%	-3.9%	-4.1%	+4.1%	BELOW	3
META	$736.69	-1.2%	-5.9%	+3.7%	+6.6%	ABOVE	4
TSLA	$320.11	-1.2%	-3.2%	+1.3%	-1.9%	BELOW	3

Chip Supply Chain Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
ARM	$133.28	+1.6%	-4.1%	-18.3%	-5.1%	BELOW	0
MRVL	$71.06	-0.0%	-6.5%	-4.0%	+4.4%	BELOW	3
INTC	$23.50	-0.2%	-4.3%	+13.5%	+13.6%	ABOVE	2
AVGO	$287.49	-0.5%	-5.5%	-0.2%	+14.8%	ABOVE	5
TSM	$224.84	-0.6%	-4.8%	-7.4%	+6.6%	BELOW	3
QCOM	$150.95	-0.8%	-2.4%	-2.7%	-3.4%	BELOW	3
AMD	$163.71	-0.9%	-7.8%	-1.7%	+35.1%	ABOVE	6

Infrastructure Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
HPE	$21.37	+3.7%	+3.1%	+5.3%	+20.6%	ABOVE	0
CSCO	$65.66	-0.1%	+1.2%	-2.4%	+5.0%	BELOW	1
DELL	$126.43	-0.5%	-7.6%	-2.6%	+15.4%	ABOVE	7
SMCI	$42.31	-0.7%	-6.7%	-22.3%	-2.1%	BELOW	3
VRT	$126.44	-0.8%	-4.9%	-7.9%	+14.5%	BELOW	3

Enterprise Software Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
PLTR	$156.18	+0.1%	-11.8%	-1.6%	+14.5%	ABOVE	0
ADBE	$353.43	+0.0%	-0.4%	-4.7%	-14.4%	BELOW	0
CRM	$243.77	-0.3%	+1.4%	-8.7%	-7.4%	BELOW	1
NOW	$175.39	-1.5%	+1.1%	-9.5%	-12.7%	BELOW	1

Finance Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
JPM	$286.00	-0.3%	+0.3%	-2.4%	+9.2%	ABOVE	1
GS	$701.82	-0.7%	-2.0%	-1.8%	+14.7%	ABOVE	3

Healthcare Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
UNH	$295.44	+1.2%	-0.2%	+7.9%	-1.6%	ABOVE	0
LLY	$706.38	+0.6%	+1.2%	-12.5%	-12.0%	BELOW	0

Retail Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
COST	$965.59	-2.5%	-0.2%	+3.8%	-2.6%	BELOW	1
WMT	$97.37	-4.5%	-2.0%	+0.7%	+2.5%	ABOVE	1

IT Services Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
ACN	$248.86	-0.4%	+2.8%	-10.3%	-20.0%	BELOW	2
IBM	$235.01	-1.3%	-0.1%	-7.2%	-14.4%	BELOW	1

Airlines Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
DAL	$57.21	-2.0%	-4.0%	+5.8%	+18.0%	ABOVE	3
UAL	$97.19	-2.7%	-3.7%	+6.7%	+23.6%	ABOVE	3

Hospitality & Travel Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
BKNG	$226.51	+1.3%	+4.7%	+1.4%	+4.5%	ABOVE	0
MAR	$260.63	-0.2%	-0.9%	-5.8%	-1.2%	BELOW	2

Food & Restaurant Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
MCD	$305.80	+0.0%	+1.4%	+4.9%	+3.8%	ABOVE	0
SBUX	$86.85	-1.1%	-2.3%	-5.6%	-6.5%	BELOW	3

Logistics Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
FDX	$178.06	-0.8%	-0.9%	-7.4%	+1.2%	BELOW	2
UPS	$82.13	-0.9%	-0.8%	-15.2%	-13.2%	BELOW	2

Industrial Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
HON	$211.42	+0.2%	+0.3%	-2.5%	-3.2%	BELOW	0
CAT	$414.93	-0.6%	+2.5%	-3.7%	+15.5%	ABOVE	1

Cybersecurity Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
PANW	$183.32	-0.6%	+3.5%	-9.8%	-5.7%	BELOW	1
CRWD	$103.51	-1.2%	-3.2%	-11.5%	-13.2%	BELOW	1
ZS	$270.35	-1.3%	-1.7%	-5.5%	-9.8%	BELOW	3

Chip Equipment Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
AMAT	$159.13	-0.4%	-0.9%	-13.7%	-7.2%	BELOW	3
LRCX	$97.87	-0.7%	-1.1%	+1.5%	+8.5%	ABOVE	2
ASML	$731.53	-1.9%	-0.9%	+3.7%	-6.0%	BELOW	1

Data Center REITs Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
EQIX	$759.62	-0.5%	-0.6%	-3.1%	-13.1%	BELOW	1
DLR	$159.18	-0.9%	-1.9%	-7.9%	-6.2%	BELOW	2

Utilities Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
NEE	$73.94	-0.1%	+0.9%	+5.9%	+4.2%	ABOVE	2
DUK	$120.99	-0.3%	+1.4%	+4.4%	+7.6%	ABOVE	1
SO	$92.35	-0.3%	+1.4%	+0.0%	+6.5%	ABOVE	1

Energy Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
CVX	$150.96	+1.5%	+0.5%	+1.6%	+8.6%	ABOVE	0
XOM	$106.84	+0.6%	+2.6%	-0.1%	+0.9%	ABOVE	0

Defense & Aerospace Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
LMT	$435.46	+0.3%	+2.2%	+6.2%	-2.1%	BELOW	0
RTX	$154.55	-0.2%	+1.4%	+0.1%	+10.7%	ABOVE	1
GD	$311.04	-0.3%	+0.9%	+0.8%	+15.3%	ABOVE	1

Telecom Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
T	$28.11	+0.5%	+2.0%	+5.1%	+4.9%	ABOVE	0
VZ	$42.15	-0.1%	+1.8%	+4.5%	+4.6%	ABOVE	1
TMUS	$253.39	-0.3%	+1.4%	+6.0%	+11.8%	ABOVE	1

Media & Entertainment Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
NFLX	$120.62	-0.6%	-2.6%	+2.2%	-1.1%	BELOW	3
DIS	$114.55	-0.7%	+0.7%	-4.3%	-2.4%	BELOW	1

Biotech Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
AMGN	$287.13	-0.2%	-0.2%	-3.5%	+1.4%	ABOVE	1
GILD	$113.19	-2.2%	-1.9%	-0.1%	+7.0%	ABOVE	1

Materials Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
APD	$285.90	+0.4%	+1.1%	-1.9%	+4.7%	ABOVE	0
LIN	$474.33	-0.3%	+0.1%	+1.7%	+2.6%	ABOVE	1

Analog & Embedded Chips Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
TXN	$196.65	-0.0%	+3.2%	+9.3%	+1.2%	ABOVE	1
MCHP	$64.35	-1.0%	+0.6%	-4.5%	-5.0%	BELOW	1

Key Stock Movers

Today's biggest movers by absolute percentage change: Walmart (WMT) (Retail) fell 4.5% to $97.37. Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) (Infrastructure) rose 3.7% to $21.37. United (UAL) (Airlines) fell 2.7% to $97.19. Costco (COST) (Retail) fell 2.5% to $965.59. Gilead (GILD) (Biotech) fell 2.2% to $113.19. These individual stock movements were key drivers of their respective sector performance.

Risk and Opportunity Assessment

On the risk side, 3 high-severity alerts are currently active, signaling significant sector declines that warrant portfolio risk management attention. Consider reducing exposure to affected sectors and tightening stop-loss levels.

US Stock Market Outlook

Near-term market outlook is cautious: active alerts highlight severe deterioration in IT Services and Logistics and six sectors declining more than 5% over 20 days, while only 9 of 24 sectors trade above their 50-day moving averages. Breadth metrics and the 50-day trend mix suggest a higher chance of rotation and sector dispersion rather than a broad rally; traders should trim cyclicals that have violated 50-day support and maintain selective exposure to Mag 7 leaders and resilient Energy/Utilities names. Positioning guidance: reduce conviction in names below their 50-day moving average, protect downside with hedges or cash buffers, and selectively allocate to high-conviction, 50-day-positive AI and defensive sector candidates.

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