US Stock Market Sector Analysis – Monday, August 25, 2025 BEARISH

Starbucks (SBUX) headlines the session after menu commentary and competitive pressure sent shares down 2.9%, anchoring weakness in Food & Restaurant where the group fell 1.6% on the day. The US stock market otherwise leaned negative, with just 3 sectors advancing versus 18 declining and only 11 of 24 sectors trading above their 50-day moving average. The Magnificent 7 held up overall, led by Tesla (TSLA) +1.9% and Alphabet (GOOG) +1.2%, while Microsoft (MSFT) $501.09 lagged below its 50-day. Macro and corporate headlines — from Coca-Cola’s reported exit from a coffee asset to executive moves at Skyworks/AMD — favored selective sector rotations into Chip Supply Chain and Chip Equipment names like TSMC (TSM) and Lam Research (LRCX).

Market Condition Dashboard

US 10-Year Treasury Yield

Wait & Watch

4.28%

stable

Impact

Confidence

Crude Oil (WTI)

Neutral

$64.80

+1.8% 1D

Impact

Confidence

VIX (Fear Index)

Normal Range

14.8

+4.0% 1D

Impact

Confidence

200-Day Moving Average

Bullish Trend Intact

0/3 below

SPY above (+8.8%), QQQ above (+10.5%), DIA above (+5.8%)

Impact

Confidence

Tracked Stocks Breadth (50DMA)

Healthy Uptrend

59%

40 of 68 above 50DMA · -1.5pp 5D

Impact

Confidence

Put/Call Ratio (5D)

Caution

0.70

Call-Heavy · rising

Impact

Confidence

Signal analysis only — not investment advice

Sector Performance (Base=100)

AI and Technology Sector Analysis

The AI investment theme remains a center of gravity: the Mag 7 continue to show leadership with NVIDIA (NVDA) $179.57 up 1.0% and Alphabet (GOOG) $208.56 up 1.2%, supporting the narrative for continued infrastructure spend. Chip Supply Chain breadth is constructive — TSMC (TSM) $233.01 rose 1.1% — but pockets like AMD $163.36 (-2.6%) highlight stock-specific risk within the chain. Persistent weakness in Enterprise Software (50-day: below) and Infrastructure (50-day: below) suggests capital is favoring chipmakers and data-center tangibles over broad software re-rates for now.

US Stock Sector Overview

Sector	1D	5D	20D	vs 50MA
Mag 7 (AI Spenders)	+0.4%	+1.2%	+4.2%	ABOVE
Chip Supply Chain	-0.5%	+0.0%	-2.1%	ABOVE
Infrastructure	+0.0%	+0.4%	-6.4%	BELOW
Enterprise Software	-0.4%	+0.1%	-5.0%	BELOW
Finance	-0.4%	+1.9%	+0.1%	ABOVE
Healthcare	-1.6%	-0.5%	+4.1%	BELOW
Retail	-1.3%	-4.6%	-0.6%	BELOW
IT Services	-1.2%	-0.4%	-8.2%	BELOW
Airlines	-1.3%	-0.0%	+12.1%	ABOVE
Hospitality & Travel	-1.1%	+1.5%	+0.2%	ABOVE
Food & Restaurant	-1.6%	-2.4%	-1.8%	BELOW
Logistics	-1.4%	-0.1%	-1.1%	BELOW
Industrial	-0.9%	+2.8%	+0.3%	BELOW
Cybersecurity	-0.7%	-0.1%	-7.3%	BELOW
Chip Equipment	+0.3%	+0.9%	-2.1%	ABOVE
Data Center REITs	-0.6%	+0.7%	-5.0%	BELOW
Utilities	-1.2%	-1.1%	+2.4%	ABOVE
Energy	+0.2%	+4.1%	+0.9%	ABOVE
Defense & Aerospace	+0.1%	+1.4%	+2.7%	ABOVE
Telecom	-0.2%	-1.6%	+4.5%	ABOVE
Media & Entertainment	+0.1%	+0.8%	+1.2%	BELOW
Biotech	-1.2%	-2.4%	-2.1%	BELOW
Materials	-1.3%	+0.5%	+0.5%	ABOVE
Analog & Embedded Chips	-0.4%	+5.9%	+3.0%	BELOW

Sector Strength

Mag 7 (AI Spenders) +0.4% 20d: +4.2%

Tesla (TSLA) +1.9% (20d: +7.9%), Alphabet (GOOG) +1.2% (20d: +6.5%), NVIDIA (NVDA) +1.0% (20d: +2.5%)

Chip Equipment +0.3% 20d: -2.1%

Lam Research (LRCX) +1.2% (20d: +2.4%), ASML -0.1% (20d: +5.0%), Applied Materials (AMAT) -0.3% (20d: -13.8%) [<50MA]

Energy +0.2% 20d: +0.9%

Exxon Mobil (XOM) +0.4% (20d: -0.1%), Chevron (CVX) +0.0% (20d: +1.9%)

Sector Warnings

Healthcare -1.6% 20d: +4.1%

Eli Lilly (LLY) -2.3% (20d: -8.7%) [<50MA], UnitedHealth (UNH) -0.8% (20d: +16.8%)

Food & Restaurant -1.6% 20d: -1.8%

Starbucks (SBUX) -2.9% (20d: -7.1%) [<50MA], McDonald's (MCD) -0.2% (20d: +3.6%)

Logistics -1.4% 20d: -1.1%

FedEx (FDX) -1.6% (20d: -0.7%), UPS -1.2% (20d: -1.6%) [<50MA]

Airlines -1.3% 20d: +12.1%

Delta (DAL) -2.1% (20d: +11.2%), United (UAL) -0.6% (20d: +12.9%)

Retail -1.3% 20d: -0.6%

Costco (COST) -1.8% (20d: +0.9%) [<50MA], Walmart (WMT) -0.8% (20d: -2.1%) [<50MA]

Sector Deep Dive

Chip Supply Chain traded mixed but resilient across the 50-day window: TSMC (TSM) $233.01 closed +1.1% and remains +14.9% vs its 50-day, while AMD $163.36 slid -2.6% on the day despite the sector's 50-day strength. The sector's 1-day -0.5% belies a meaningful 50-day outperformance, signaling that chip equipment and foundry exposure is still the preferred route into AI hardware demand even as individual component names show dispersion.

Food & Restaurant underperformed with Starbucks (SBUX) $84.16 off -2.9%, dragging the sector -1.6% for the day and leaving the group below its 50-day by -1.8%. The day's headlines around Coca-Cola and competitive menu dynamics intensified rotation out of restaurants and into defensive Food names; the 50-day trend here is fragile and suggests caution on cyclical restaurant operators until revenue mix and pricing power reassert themselves.

IT Services and Enterprise Software are the clear stress points in the 50-day frame. IT Services shows a -15.2% move over 50 days (active HIGH alert) and Enterprise Software sits below its 50-day with the group down -0.4% today and -5.0% over 20 days. These trends argue for underweight positioning in outsourcers and software distributors until bookings and multi-quarter guidance stabilize, even as pockets of value may appear after outsized declines.

Airlines diverged intraday with Delta Air Lines (DAL) $59.76 sliding -2.1% while the broader Airlines sector sits above its 50-day and is +33.6% over 50 days. Delta-specific commentary around operational planning pressured the name, yet the 50-day strength for the group signals sustained travel recovery. Traders should differentiate between cohort-level strength and individual carrier execution risk, using 50-day support as a stop / screen for new positions.

Chip Equipment shows constructive leadership inside semiconductors: Lam Research (LRCX) $100.72 gained +1.2% and the sub-sector is +2.7% vs its 50-day, reflecting continued capex expectations tied to AI-driven wafer fab activity. With Chip Equipment up 0.3% today and a positive 50-day context, exposure here offers a leveraged way to play secular AI infrastructure buildouts while managing single-stock execution risk.

Market Breadth Analysis

US stock market breadth analysis shows 11 of 24 sectors trading above their 50-day moving average, while 13 are below. With the majority of sectors below the 50-day MA, medium-term momentum is deteriorating. The 20-day breadth shows 11 sectors in negative territory, pointing to widespread selling pressure.

Interactive Charts

S&P 500 & NASDAQ 100

50-Day Sector Performance

1-Day vs 5-Day Sector Change

Active Alerts

HIGH IT Services down -15.2% over 50 days

HIGH 4 sectors declining >5% over 20 days: Infrastructure, Enterprise Software, IT Services, Cybersecurity

Stock-Level Detail

Mag 7 (AI Spenders) Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
TSLA	$346.60	+1.9%	+5.3%	+7.9%	+6.5%	ABOVE	0
GOOG	$208.56	+1.2%	+3.3%	+6.5%	+18.9%	ABOVE	0
NVDA	$179.57	+1.0%	+2.4%	+2.5%	+26.7%	ABOVE	0
META	$750.84	-0.2%	+0.2%	+7.6%	+10.4%	ABOVE	1
AAPL	$226.52	-0.3%	-1.5%	+7.6%	+15.8%	ABOVE	1
AMZN	$227.94	-0.4%	-0.0%	-1.3%	+7.5%	ABOVE	1
MSFT	$501.09	-0.6%	-0.9%	-1.5%	+6.3%	BELOW	1

Chip Supply Chain Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
TSM	$233.01	+1.1%	+1.2%	-2.4%	+11.6%	ABOVE	0
AVGO	$292.09	+0.1%	-0.2%	-1.1%	+18.6%	ABOVE	0
MRVL	$72.79	-0.1%	+1.2%	-4.4%	+8.7%	BELOW	1
ARM	$137.78	-0.1%	+2.8%	-15.7%	+1.6%	BELOW	1
QCOM	$153.19	-1.0%	+0.1%	-3.5%	+1.1%	ABOVE	1
INTC	$24.55	-1.0%	-3.0%	+20.3%	+21.9%	ABOVE	1
AMD	$163.36	-2.6%	-1.9%	-7.9%	+40.6%	ABOVE	1

Infrastructure Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
HPE	$22.10	+0.5%	+5.7%	+8.2%	+28.8%	ABOVE	0
SMCI	$44.07	+0.4%	+1.9%	-24.8%	+6.0%	BELOW	0
DELL	$129.58	+0.1%	-3.1%	-1.9%	+20.1%	ABOVE	0
CSCO	$65.78	-0.3%	+0.6%	-1.2%	+5.4%	BELOW	1
VRT	$124.88	-0.8%	-3.1%	-12.4%	+12.7%	BELOW	5

Enterprise Software Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
ADBE	$363.21	+0.3%	+0.6%	-2.0%	-7.3%	BELOW	0
CRM	$245.79	-0.2%	+0.8%	-7.3%	-3.9%	BELOW	1
NOW	$175.99	-0.8%	-0.8%	-11.4%	-11.0%	BELOW	1
PLTR	$157.17	-1.0%	-0.4%	+0.6%	+14.4%	ABOVE	1

Finance Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
GS	$724.21	-0.4%	+2.4%	+0.9%	+20.4%	ABOVE	1
JPM	$289.36	-0.5%	+1.5%	-0.7%	+11.8%	ABOVE	1

Healthcare Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
UNH	$296.91	-0.8%	+0.2%	+16.8%	-2.1%	ABOVE	1
LLY	$691.96	-2.3%	-1.1%	-8.7%	-15.0%	BELOW	1

Retail Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
WMT	$95.50	-0.8%	-5.2%	-2.1%	+2.0%	BELOW	3
COST	$937.61	-1.8%	-4.0%	+0.9%	-4.8%	BELOW	3

IT Services Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
IBM	$235.04	-1.1%	-0.8%	-8.1%	-13.0%	BELOW	1
ACN	$250.88	-1.2%	+0.1%	-8.2%	-17.4%	BELOW	1

Airlines Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
UAL	$102.34	-0.6%	+0.1%	+12.9%	+38.3%	ABOVE	1
DAL	$59.76	-2.1%	-0.1%	+11.2%	+28.9%	ABOVE	1

Hospitality & Travel Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
BKNG	$226.23	-0.3%	+2.1%	+2.0%	+7.6%	ABOVE	1
MAR	$266.92	-1.9%	+0.9%	-1.5%	+5.6%	ABOVE	1

Food & Restaurant Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
MCD	$306.01	-0.2%	+0.8%	+3.6%	+3.8%	ABOVE	1
SBUX	$84.16	-2.9%	-5.6%	-7.1%	-7.4%	BELOW	5

Logistics Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
UPS	$83.64	-1.2%	-0.1%	-1.6%	-10.6%	BELOW	1
FDX	$184.16	-1.6%	-0.1%	-0.7%	+4.5%	ABOVE	1

Industrial Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
CAT	$429.24	-0.8%	+3.9%	+0.5%	+21.5%	ABOVE	1
HON	$214.52	-1.0%	+1.8%	+0.0%	-1.1%	BELOW	1

Cybersecurity Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
CRWD	$104.71	-0.4%	+0.1%	-10.0%	-12.9%	BELOW	1
PANW	$184.55	-0.7%	+1.6%	-4.8%	-6.0%	BELOW	1
ZS	$269.66	-1.0%	-1.9%	-7.0%	-10.7%	BELOW	1

Chip Equipment Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
LRCX	$100.72	+1.2%	+0.9%	+2.4%	+13.4%	ABOVE	0
ASML	$750.49	-0.1%	+1.5%	+5.0%	-0.6%	ABOVE	1
AMAT	$161.27	-0.3%	+0.1%	-13.8%	-4.8%	BELOW	1

Data Center REITs Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
EQIX	$769.65	-0.5%	+1.8%	-3.0%	-11.8%	BELOW	1
DLR	$161.21	-0.7%	-0.4%	-7.0%	-4.9%	BELOW	1

Utilities Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
DUK	$119.98	-1.0%	-0.5%	+3.9%	+6.3%	ABOVE	1
NEE	$73.20	-1.3%	-1.6%	+4.7%	+0.7%	ABOVE	1
SO	$90.90	-1.4%	-1.1%	-1.4%	+3.9%	ABOVE	3

Energy Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
XOM	$109.30	+0.4%	+4.0%	-0.1%	+0.6%	ABOVE	0
CVX	$153.53	+0.0%	+4.1%	+1.9%	+9.6%	ABOVE	0

Defense & Aerospace Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA
LMT	$435.96	+0.3%	+1.5%	+6.6%	-8.0%	BELOW
GD	$314.34	+0.1%	+1.1%	+1.6%	+13.6%	ABOVE
RTX	$154.50	+0.0%	+1.7%	-0.1%	+7.7%	ABOVE

Telecom Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
TMUS	$247.08	-0.1%	-2.5%	+5.2%	+10.4%	ABOVE	3
T	$27.45	-0.1%	-0.8%	+4.9%	+3.0%	ABOVE	2
VZ	$41.40	-0.5%	-1.6%	+3.6%	+4.5%	ABOVE	3

Media & Entertainment Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
NFLX	$121.81	+1.1%	+0.3%	+4.2%	+0.5%	BELOW	0
DIS	$116.03	-1.0%	+1.2%	-1.8%	+0.2%	BELOW	1

Biotech Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
GILD	$111.25	-0.5%	-3.2%	-0.1%	+3.8%	ABOVE	3
AMGN	$282.32	-1.8%	-1.6%	-4.2%	-1.5%	BELOW	1

Materials Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
LIN	$471.50	-0.8%	-0.4%	+1.3%	+2.5%	ABOVE	1
APD	$286.53	-1.7%	+1.4%	-0.3%	+5.6%	ABOVE	1

Analog & Embedded Chips Show individual tickers

Ticker	Price	1D	5D	20D	50D	vs 50MA	Down Days
TXN	$201.80	-0.0%	+5.1%	+8.4%	+6.4%	ABOVE	1
MCHP	$67.20	-0.9%	+6.7%	-2.3%	+5.0%	BELOW	1

Key Stock Movers

Today's biggest movers by absolute percentage change: Starbucks (SBUX) (Food & Restaurant) fell 2.9% to $84.16. AMD (Chip Supply Chain) fell 2.6% to $163.36. Eli Lilly (LLY) (Healthcare) fell 2.3% to $691.96. Delta (DAL) (Airlines) fell 2.1% to $59.76. Tesla (TSLA) (Mag 7 (AI Spenders)) rose 1.9% to $346.60. These individual stock movements were key drivers of their respective sector performance.

Risk and Opportunity Assessment

On the risk side, 2 high-severity alerts are currently active, signaling significant sector declines that warrant portfolio risk management attention. Consider reducing exposure to affected sectors and tightening stop-loss levels.

US Stock Market Outlook

Near-term outlook is cautious: market breadth is weak with 18 sectors down and only 11 of 24 sectors above their 50-day moving average, and active HIGH alerts on IT Services and four sectors declining >5% over 20 days. The S&P 500 remains dependent on Mag 7 leadership where 50-day trends are mixed; traders should favor selective exposure to chip supply chain and equipment names that are above their 50-day while trimming or avoiding names in IT Services and Enterprise Software that are underperforming. Positioning guidance: overweight high-conviction AI hardware exposure, neutral broader tech, and underweight weaker 50-day sectors until trend reversal confirmations arrive.

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